Re-alignment Nightmares?

For those unhappy with the NHL realignment schema, just think how it could have been. Rather than east-to-west strata, the league could have done north to south:
Northern Conference:
Canadian Division:
Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, Toronto Maple Leafs, Winnipeg Jets, Edmonton Oilers, Calgary Flames, Vancouver Canucks
Northern US Division:
Boston Bruins, Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, Columbus Blue Jackets, Chicago Blackhawks, Minnesota Wild, Colorado Avalanche

Southern Conference:
Central Division:
New York Islanders, New York Rangers, New Jersey Devils, Philadelphia Flyers, Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins, Nashville Predators, St. Louis Blues

Too Warm For Hockey Division:
Florida Panthers, Carolina Hurricanes, Tampa Bay Lightning, Dallas Stars, Phoenix Coyotes, San Jose Sharks, Los Angeles Kings, Anaheim Ducks

Of course, this would all but guarantee that the Cup would stay in locales where ice can occur naturally in the winter! There’d also be some great rivalry potential- all the Canadian teams playing together, a chunk of the old Patrick Division reunited, Detroit-Boston-Chicago from Original Six days. The big downside, of course, is that travel would be insane for both the northern and southern-most divisions. I suppose it’d be possible to swap San Jose and Nashville and make three of the four divisions bi-coastal. ;-)

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Offsetting Minors: Tripping/Hooking/Slashing and Diving

In the playoffs especially, some players will go to great lengths to try to get their team an advantage. Worse, the trend in NHL officiating does very little to discourage the practice. In this season’s play in particular, we’ve seen some egregious embellishments to try to game the referees into awarding a power-play. Take, for instance, the reaction by Joe Thornton to a ‘slash’ from Johan Franzen:

Thornton appears to use a can-opener move, getting his stick between Franzen’s skates to lever the Red Wing forward to the ice. Franzen retaliates after getting up and whacks Thornton on the shin-pads. The referees penalize both players- Franzen getting two minutes for slashing and Thornton two minutes for unsportsmanlike conduct- diving. As a result of the play goes, it’s a wash. Neither side gets a man-power advantage, although ostensibly Thornton could have earned two minutes for tripping at the start of the whole thing. Instead, it’s even-up.

That’s where I have a problem. If the initial infraction is worthy of a penalty, then it should be penalized regardless of the theatrics. If a player tries to ‘sell’ a call where there appears to be significant enhancement out of proportion to the perceived foul, that player deserves the unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. Instead, the way it’s usually called, the infraction which is called is the seemingly insignificant one, or both players get sent off- and there’s no disincentive to make embellishing discouraged. If it’s a stick foul, it’s two minutes in the box; but if the contact was negligible but results in histrionics, the causality shouldn’t be called, just the reaction.

If the NHL wants to stop diving, all it needs to do is to instruct its officiating staffs to call the dives unilaterally. Once a team has had to go short-handed a few times due to its players’ acting, they’ll stop doing it. We’ve already seen some adjustments in other marginal calls- hooking/holding the stick situations most notably. Players figured out that there were some guys who’d try to catch an opponent’s stick under their arms and try to work the hooking call and adjusted by letting their sticks go when they started to feel the tug. This is still gamesmanship and enhancing what actually happens, but it’s nice to see some of these calls going both ways.

In the Franzen-Thornton incident shown, Thornton seems to react to a half-hearted slash as if he’d just been shot. Looking at his lower leg, it’s fairly clear that he didn’t somehow manage to make it onto the ice without shinpads- in which case the contact may have been painful. Having played the game, though, even if not nearly at this level, I think I can say with a relatively high degree of confidence that players tap their teammates on the shin pads harder after the recipients have made particularly good plays. If this were truly a penalizable foul, much of most games should be played with as many players in each penalty box as on the benches- there’s more contact in pick-up games after the whistles than this

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Looking forward and back

First, back to the first round predictions:
Vancouver over Chicago in six. Actually, the Blackhawks took Vancouver to a seventh game, and into overtime in it, before falling to the Canucks.
San Jose over LA in five. Almost. The Sharks prevailed, but took six games. Most notable- a San Jose rally from a 0-4
Detroit over Phoenix in six. Despite missing leading scorer Henrik Zetterberg for the whole series, and without leading goal scorer Johan Franzen in the fourth game, the Wings got a long rest heading into the second round, sweeping the Coyotes four straight.
Nashville over Anaheim in seven. The Predators advanced to the Conference Semi-finals for the first time in franchise history, but only needed six games to dispose of the pesky Ducks.
Washington over New York in five. Right on both counts.
Buffalo over Philadelphia in six. Nope. Flyers in seven. The Sabres managed to win the games where they could play their game and not get caught trying to play firewagon hockey with {hilly, but by the seventh game, it looked as if there was nothing left in Buffalo’s reserve to keep that game competitive.
Boston over Montréal in six. It took seven- and overtime in the finale, but Boston edged the Canadiens out of the post-season.
Tampa over Pittsburgh in six. As above, it took seven game, but the Lightning finished off the Penguins chances of making a Cup run sans Crosby and Malkin.

Looking forward:
Western Conference
Vancouver Canucks v. Nashville Predators: Vancouver had a hard time with Chicago. The Predators are a better defensive hockey team than the Blackhawks were and score by committee rather than having particular offensive start putting the puck in the net. With that said, though, Vancouver is deeper, particularly up front, and should win this series. Nashville goalie Pekka Rinne has the talent to steal a game or two if his team can solve Luongo- who was shaky at best in parts of the opening series.
San Jose Sharks v. Detroit Red Wings: Detroit pulled out the brooms in advancing over Phoenix, while San Jose took six games to end the post-season hopes of the Los Angeles Kings. This is a rematch of last season’s semi-final series between the Sharks and Wings, but Detroit will be coming in rested rather than having just finished a seven-game war with Phoenix. Zetterberg and Franzen should both play for the Wings, which will leave Mike Babcock with the enviable quandry of deciding which forwards leave in the press box. The Sharks are looking to shake a post-season choker label and advance to the Conference finals. The key for both teams will be special teams- if the Wings can improve a penalty kill which was bad in the Phoenix series and stay out of the box, they should do well; but if they let the San Jose power play get established, it could be a quick end to the series.

Eastern Conference
Washington Capitals v. Tampa Bay Lightning: The Lightning have been a different team since acquiring Dwayne Roloson, and split four close-fought games with the Caps after doing so after dropping the first two of the season series by a combined total of 12-3. The Tampa blueline corps was a concern coming into the playoffs, but distinguished themselves in the opening round with the Penguins. It remains to be seen if they can continue to play responsibly in their own end facing Washington’s Alexander Ovechkin and company. Continued strong defensive hockey may give them a chance to continue the post season run, but reverting the regular season form may allow the Caps to bury the Bolts early.

Philadelphia Flyers v. Boston Bruins: The Flyers were pressed to seven games by the underpowered Buffalo Sabres in the opening round. They’ll face a bigger team which doesn’t shy away from a physical game in the Bruins, who are just about as stalwart in goal; and a team which won’t hesitate to take the Flyer borderline goonery and throw it back at them. Look for this matchup to feel like hockey from the mid-70s, and to be an absolute war for 60 or more minutes every game.

Predictions:
Vancouver over Nashville in six games, Detroit over San Jose in six games; Washington over Tampa Bay in seven games, Boston over Philadelphia in seven games.

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It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year…..

Playoff time!

Yeah, I know. I’ve been remiss about updating here. Life tends to get in the way. Anyway, for sixteen teams, there are only sixteen victories remaining until they can claim hockey’s Ultimate Prize. Unfortunately for fifteen of them, just as was the case in Highlander, There Can Be Only One. Lose four out of every seven and it’s a long summer. With that said, here are my takes on the first round:

Western Conference
#1 Vancouver Canucks v. #8 Chicago Blackhawks.
These teams have met the last few years in the playoffs, with the Hawks sending Vancouver packing. This time, though, the Canucks are coming in as the President’s Trophy winners and with something to prove. Look for Vancouver to take this one, but don’t be surprised if it takes all seven games to do so. Besides, there’s something of a tradition about Canadian teams and the Cup the year after their city hosted the Olympics: in 1976, the Summer Games were in Montréal, and Les Glorieux hoisted the Cup after the ’76-’77 campaign; in 1988, Calgary played host to the Winter Games and the Flames captured their only championship in the ’88-’89 season. With the Vancouver Games having interrupted the 2009-2010 season, is it Vancouver’s turn to continue the tradition this year?

#2 San Jose Sharks v. #7 Los Angeles Kings
The Sharks have borne the burden of having a roster which failed to achieve post-season acclaim for quite some time now. The Kings come in without their two leading scorers in Anze Kopitar and Jason Williams. Jonathan Quick has the capability of stealing a game or two for LA, but he’ll need the secondary scorers to shoulder the mantle of primary point providers for the Kings to move on.

#3 Detroit Red Wings v. #6 Phoenix Coyotes.
The Wings rode a rocky and inconsistent season to their twentieth consecutive post-season appearance and eleventh consecutive 100+ point regular season total. In spite of their talent, the Wings are going to need to prove themselves capable of doing something they didn’t display during the campaign- the ability to gain and maintain the advantage over lesser skilled teams. Phoenix isn’t a stellar side, but one capable of ending the Wings’ hopes early if Detroit fails to turn up their intensity.

#4 Anaheim Ducks v. #5 Nashville Predators
This should be the most physical of the Western Conference first-round series. Anaheim comes in having finished the regular season on a hot streak, but now they’re going to have to battle against a team which plays much the same style which they do. Look for both teams to hit and slash each other to pieces. I’d pick the Predators to prevail solely on the basis of their stronger goaltending.

Eastern Conference
#1 Washington Capitals v. #8 New York Rangers
The Broadway Blueshirts had the upper hand in the regular season, but are banged up coming into the playoffs. If Washington can manage to play their game and not burden their defence corps with trying to kill off stupid penalties, that should be enough to prolong the Caps march into the semi-finals.

#2 Philadelphia Flyers v. #7 Buffalo Sabres
At the three-quarters mark of the regular season, predicting a winner of a series like this would have been considerably easier than it is now- the Flyers finished ten points ahead of the Sabres, score more goals per game and yield fewer. However, the Sabres come into the post-season on a 16-4-4 run while the Flyers struggled down the stretch. If the Sabres can find a way to put a few pucks in the net, they could steal this series.

#3 Boston Bruins v. #6 Montréal Canadiens
An Original Six matchup, and one which has developed some enmity this season, the Bruins and Canadiens series will come down to Boston’s size against Montréal’s speed. Tim Thomas has had a Vezina-calibre season in the Boston net, but Carey Price could find himself in consideration for the award as well, having tied for the league lead in wins. Don’t expect the Habs to reprise last year’s run to the Conference Finals, though.

#4 Pittsburgh Penguins v. #5 Tampa Bay Lightning
The television commentators will be sure to mention one name significantly out of proportion to that player’s ice time. Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby has been sidelined with post-concussion symptoms since skating into Washington’s David Steckel with his head down during the Winter Classic. The Pens’ other primary threat, Evgeny Malkin, has also been on the shelf for some time and is not expected to play until next season, but somehow the team has persevered and performed admirably without their two marquee stars. They’ll face a Tampa squad with stars of their own- sophomore Steven Stamkos and Martin St. Louis and goaltending from New York Islanders cast-away Dwayne Roloson backstopping the Bolts. This series could well be the reciprocal of its Western counterpart, as these two teams play similar games as well- but rather than the physical focus, Tampa and Pittsburgh emphasize a skill game.

Predictions: Vancouver over Chicago in six, San Jose over LA in five, Detroit over Phoenix in six, Nashville over Anaheim in seven; Washington over New York in five, Buffalo over Philadelphia in six, Boston over Montréal in six, Tampa over Pittsburgh in six.

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Hmmm….

It has been entirely too long since I’ve updated here. Life tends to get in the way sometimes, and as a result, blogging suffers. I apologize to all three of my readers for this deficiency, and will try to do better- which means you’ll get two posts every other month rather than one every three or something like that.

Anyway, Fanhouse is reporting that the New Jersey Devils are up for sale. Paul Allen, are you paying attention? It’s time to open your wallet and bring hockey back to the Emerald City. Build an NHL-calibre arena, and the NBA will probably come back as well. Why the Devils? Well, if they went back to the colour scheme used back in the Patrick Division days- red, white and green- they’d align with that of the old PCHA (and Stanley Cup winning) Seattle Metropolitans. C’mon, Paul, you can do it. Or maybe write Charles Wang a check for the Islanders? The Thrashers are reportedly on the block as well. You know you have enough of a collection of other stuff- why not acquire something which has the potential to be a revenue channel (not that you need any more money), but which is one of a limited edition of 32?

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400!

His career hasn’t always been the prettiest to follow, and his detractors will point to a number of really awful goals allowed, particularly at inopportune times, but tonight, the Detroit Red Wings’ Chris Osgood has entered into elite company, becoming only the tenth goaltender in the 97 years of the NHL’s existence to record his four hundredth victory with a 4-3 overtime victory against the Colorado Avalanche at the Pepsi Center in Denver. All of the other nine have gone on to merit election to the Hockey Hall of Fame.

It was probably fitting that the former Seattle Thunderbird netminder was first greeted by long-time teammate and friend Kris Draper before the team mobbed Osgood in celebration.

Courtesy of NHL.com and Fox Sports Detroit, the finale, from Niklas Kronwall’s game winner through the celebration:

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Five Games In…

Just a few thoughts about the season so far, at least as far as the men wearing the Winged Wheel are concerned:

  • They’re fortunate to be 3-1-1 after five games, because they haven’t played particularly well as a team at any point so far. Five games, though, is too early to really be concerned, particularly since the team has managed at least a point in every one except for the debacle in Dallas.
  • Shootouts. Can we just go back to having ties rather than deciding a team game via individual efforts? With that said, I think I know why the Wings are so awful in them despite what the offensive potentials of the individuals on the roster would seem to dictate: too many left-handed shooters. Of the skaters on the opening day roster, only Patrick Eaves and Brian Rafalski shoot right-handed. And we all know what happened the last time Eaves took a chance during a shootout:
  • Tonight, the Wings host Calgary, after five days off in a row. Why the schedule makers do this confuses me somewhat. It seems that every year, there’s a stretch early where it seems like forever between games, and by March, it’s time for four games in five nights to accommodate for it. Surely the Wings could have gotten at least one of their seemingly endless skein of contests against the Columbus Blue Jackets out of the way.

Anyway, my overnight builds have finished installing, so it’s time to get back to the paying job. For those of you who come here for hockey-related data analysis, I have a new data set which needs some cleaning up, but which I’ll hopefully get to by mid-November.

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Opening Night: Red Wings v. Anaheim

What just happened? Danny Cleary had a goal initially waved off, but then awarded upon review from Toronto and Pavel Datsyuk registered a Gordie Howe hat-trick. 4-0 Wings. I think the boys want to send the greybeards out with a Cup.

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NHL Attendance and Performance Revisited

Yesterday afternoon, I happened across some new data which broke out teams’ post-lockout (2005-2006 season through 2009-2010) attendance and records, which I hadn’t seen before. It’s not perfect, but it does add a layer of detail which hadn’t been available before and allows at least a little bit of trend analysis.

I had a fairly lengthy internal debate about the complexity of the filters. The visualizations are far too crowded to allow for nice, neat display within the 625 pixels worth of width here, particularly with all thirty teams toggled on (and, honestly, even full-screen at 1600×1200). I’m not completely satisfied with the solution on which I settled, but it seemed that most of the target audience would have interest in a few teams, perhaps a division or geographical region, and possibly a whole conference at a time so there didn’t seem to be a happy way to make certain they all worked without making lots of worksheets and linking them all- which seemed complicated enough that no one who wasn’t a data geek would really do so (and a tip of the virtual chapeau to those of you out there who are data and visualization geeks, particularly those of you I had the honour of meeting last week at TCC 2010).

My objectives were two-fold: first, to try to put myself in the position of an interested potential ownership group possibly looking to relocate a team hoping to target one with a flagging support base; and secondly, to see if the article in which I found the data had reached good conclusions based on the data rather than anecdote- there didn’t seem to be much logic behind some of the rankings.

The second of the two was by far the easier. I think many of the conclusions Tom Schreier drew in the original article were at best flawed. I mean, c’mon now, ranking the Air Canada Centre in Toronto as having the best home-ice advantage in the National Hockey League when despite playing to sellout+ crowds for every home date over the last five years the Maple Leafs have averaged 5.4 points under the league median of points earned in home games. No, if there’s an arena which seems to give a boost to its team just from the data, it’d have to be Detroit’s Joe Louis Arena, where the host Red Wings have performed 10.7 points better than the median averaged over the last five seasons, and have done so in front of a shade over 98.1% filled seats.

Although the Bank Atlantic Center, home of the Florida Panthers, brought up the rear of Schreier’s list, that seemed tenuous as well. True, the Panthers’ drew a league low average percentage (at 80.61%), but the St. Louis Blues’ home at Scottrade Center seems like a far less daunting place to play wearing road white jerseys, as the Blues rank lowest in the league, posting only 41.6 points at home on average, while playing in front of average crowds about nine percent smaller than the league median, making them almost as much an outlier as their divisional opponent in Detroit is on the other end of the spectrum.

The other objective gets a little more difficult. With the ownership question mark in Phoenix, the Coyotes will come up in discussions, but excluding last year, the Coyotes haven’t drawn that poorly, although they still place solidly in the sub-median quadrant. It’s too early to tell if last season’s performance will make hockey fans in the Arizona desert flock to Jobing Arena, but if the team continues to perform well, there may be other more tempting targets.

The relative weakness of the Southeastern Conference may for move rumours surrounding any team there, and it’s possible to make a case for most of them. Realistically, though, the Washington Capitals aren’t going anywhere, and are a solid draw at home. The former Hartford Whalers seem to have settled into a new home in North Carolina’s Research Triangle, and have on average both outdrawn (in percentage) and outpaced their division-mates to the north. Tampa Bay may have underachieved in the standings, but draw near the median- and statistically better than any other team in their division, and with fresh faces in the lineup, a new general manager and ownership group, the Lightning aren’t likely to bolt soon either (sorry, couldn’t resist the pun!).

This leaves Atlanta and the Panthers as potential candidates from the Southeast. Florida has underperformed- but not as badly as Atlanta, trailing the median by 2.1 points as opposed to the Thrashers’ 5.3, but their attendance figures seem to indicate that they play in a building which is about 3-4k seats bigger than they can fill in the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale area as they average just over 80.6%- or one in five empty seats. Atlanta did well with the Flames before they left for Calgary thirty years ago, but with a team which has been unable to retain star players, attendance has fallen sharply, dropping about 2600 in the last four years. Either might be available at the right price, but the Panthers’ better play may make them more viable in a new market, albeit likely the more expensive of the two.

The Columbus Blue Jackets and Nashville Predators may come to mind for some as potential candidates. The Preds might actually be a steal were they to become available- they are a solid enough squad to perform better than the median, averaging 5.1 points better at home, while drawing roughly the same five year average as the Capitals or Blackhawks (although, to be fair, Chicago’s attendance was comparatively abysmal in the first two years of the sample, sufficient to skew the whole to about the third-year’s value; as was the Caps’ draw in the pre-Ovechkin era). Columbus has been a reasonably mediocre team drawing reasonably mediocre crowds which have slumped almost ten percent over our sample. As was the case with the Florida Panthers, this may be sufficient to make them sufficiently more attractive for relocation.

Two other teams stand out as potential candidates- although potentially shocking, and probably off of almost everyone’s radar. First, the New York Islanders. Well removed from the glory days of the early ’80s and their consecutive Cup wins, the Isles are the weakest drawing team in a market currently supporting three franchises. Their ownership group has made some dubious contract moves, and they’ve played to a building fifteen to twenty-five percent empty over the last three years. Owner Charles Wang has made noises about a new arena, but nothing has come of it, and with a flock of up-and-coming young talent, the Islanders might be attractive to someone with deep enough pockets to eat the bad contracts and uproot the team.

Finally, and perhaps most surprisingly, the team which has had the steepest drop in attendance in our sample, dropping over four thousand fans per home date- dropping from sellouts every night to under 77.5% capacity, the Colorado Avalanche. The Avs are another team somewhat removed from their glory days, but with a crop of emergent players, there is potential to turn the corner.

I’m not even going to broach the question of where these teams should go if new ownership should arise, or whether the NHL would approve moves aside from a few blanket statements: “Out of the Sun Belt” – if the climate is not capable of forming ice outside in the winter at that latitude, hockey may be a tough sell; “Canada”- the game was born in the Home and Native Land, and will find a way to be supported there; and “Seattle” because, honestly, I’d rather not have to travel in order to see pro games. Besides, the first Cup won outside of Canada was lifted here, so the NHL owes the Emerald City something. ;-)

Agree? Disagree? Think you can make a better case for another team after playing with the data? I’d love to see your spin on it.



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NHL Attendance and Performance

Continuing an analysis of some of the statistics behind the game, today we look to see if there are marked correlations between how teams play and how rabidly their fans turn out. Doing so over just a single season is probably too limited to draw any broad conclusions, but there are a few bits which stand out.

The Blackhawks’ resurgence drew flocks to see them play, and the Madhouse on Madison was packed to the rafters, averaging over a hundred and eight percent capacity. At the other end of the scale, the Phoenix Coyotes played in front of three empty seats out of every ten in the desert.

There are few surprises in the data. The Original Six except for the Boston Bruins all stake a place in the top third of overall draws, but their company there aren’t necessarily the teams one would think- Philadelphia, Calgary and Vancouver may not be huge surprises, but the final two of the top tercile certainly are- the Buffalo Sabres and St. Louis Blues.

Twelve of 30 teams are better draws on the road than at home. In some cases, the reasons are clear- the prolonged economic downturn in Detroit may make it hard for many Red Wings fans to attend games at the Joe, while a fairly sizable set of Wingnuts in diaspora turn out to see the Winged Wheel on the road; Phoenix’ ownership issues may have driven attendance down at home; in the Southeast, only the Capitals emerge from the bottom tercile- posting sellout crowds, while the rest of their division averages under 78% capacity.

Looking to tradition more than present performance, the Maple Leafs and Oilers fill all the seats, despite being the performance outliers, putting up the worst points per occupied seat ratios.

Tomorrow, data availability willing, we’ll take a look at media exposure. If not, I’ll try to pull together some performance trends over the past ten years of play.


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